Sizes and Distances Cosmology Space Station
Asteroid Mining for Profit
Asteroid Ida and it's tiny companion Dactyl. Photo courtesy NSSDC.
Sizes and Distances Cosmology Space Station
Asteroid Ida and it's tiny companion Dactyl. Photo courtesy NSSDC.
There are many excellent sources of information, both in print and on the Internet, dealing with asteroid mining. But all the ones I've come across deal with the subject in more generalized terms when it comes to their market potential. Even the exceptionally detailed and inspiring PERMANENT website, which is devoted almost exclusively to the subject, gives little detail about just how valuable these asteroids actually are in dollars and cents.
This page (and the accompanying CHART) attempt to give the prospective entrepreneur a better idea of a typical asteroid's true potential as a mineral resource. Now it's true that no one has actually ever set foot on an asteroid, but that does not mean that we don't have any information about them. The astronomical community has conducted numerous spectral analyses of asteroids in various wavelengths, and we have actually orbited and landed a probe on the surface of one. From these data, as well as analysis of meteorites, we have a pretty good idea of the kinds of minerals and the relative abundance we can expect to find on and in an asteroid. The results are startling.
One area of mining that is not addressed here is the cost of setting up such a venture. This is beyond the scope of this article. I recommend consulting the PERMANENT website, and some of the links therein.
The space between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter contains an enormous quantity of small to large pieces of floating debris known as the Asteroid Belt. These mini-planets range in size from small boulders to huge city- and country-size planetoids. There are literally billions upon billions of these chunks of debris floating around the solar system. Most are leftover materials from the gas and dust cloud that formed the sun and planets.
Many asteroids are also found in other areas of the solar system, including in the space between the Earth and Mars. These are known as Near Earth Objects, or NEOs, and are of the greatest interest to potential asteroid miners. In fact, Mars' two moons, Phobos and Demos, are said to be captured asteroids.
Asteroids are divided into several classifications, including Metallic, Stony, Carbonaceous, etc. This article will be concentrating on the most common type (about 75%), Carbonaceous Asteroids.
Unlike comets, which originate in the cold outer regions of the solar system and contain lots of volatiles such as water ice and frozen methane, C-Type asteroids contain less volatiles and a higher concentration of heavier elements. And, unlike the larger moons and planets, most did not undergo a molten stage which would have sent heavier metals to the core. Their composition is thought to be fairly homogenous throughout.
Besides free metals like iron and nickel, C-Type asteroids also contain water ice, hydrocarbons, graphite, various metal oxides, silicates, sulfides and sulfates, nitrates, carbonates, etc.
Because of their composition, C-Type asteroids make ideal sources for strategic metals. Besides iron (which makes up about 22% by weight of a typical C-Type asteroid), most have high concentrations of such important and/or valuable materials as aluminum, magnesium, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and titanium (see our Chart). But other minerals on these types of asteroids are of equal importance for life support in space. The water ice (usually about 10%) would be important for use by human colonists for drinking and bathing and, when broken down, for oxygen (to breathe and for fuel) and hydrogen (also for fuel). Organic minerals are also present. In fact, the overall composition of asteroid ore is quite a lot like common dirt, with the addition of a high percentage of metal nodules.
To give you an idea of just how much wealth is contained in asteroids, let's break down a typical C-Type asteroid, into its component parts. We'll take a fairly typical larger asteroid of about 1 km. (0.6 miles) diameter. There are thousands of asteroids of this size available to choose from. Our 1 km. dia. asteroid would have a mass of about 2 billion metric tonnes (M.T.).
We have a pretty good idea about the relative abundance of most elements in our asteroid from x-ray spectroscopic surveys. Of course, since each C-Type asteroid is unique, elemental compositions will vary from asteroid to asteroid, sometimes greatly. This is an average based on a small sampling of spectral data. For a complete breakdown of these elemental data and their estimated values, please see our Chart.
Following is a short list from this chart, based on the above mentioned elements, expressed in parts per billion (PPB) by mass (weight)*, with the equivalent in total metric tons for our 1 km. dia. asteroid.
Of course, there are many other strategic metals (and non-metals) in equally staggering quantities on our asteroid, such as germanium, chromium, copper, zinc, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium, tellurium, and many more (78 quantified elements in our chart). But the seven elements listed above will do nicely for our illustration. Based on 1998 spot prices (except Platinum - $779./troy oz. or $25/gm.) for the above metals**, the total value of the above would be over $1.275 trillion! Breaking it down another way, these 7 elements would yield $637.64 in refined metals for each metric ton of ore. When all elements (excluding most alkaline metals and some non-metals - see Chart) are considered, the average value of refined elements per metric ton of ore is about $1,125.
Cost! The Earth's gravity makes sending stuff up into space and into orbit VERY expensive. Even a 1 kg. bag of sand would currently cost about $12,000 ($12 million per metric ton) to put into space on a shuttle flight. With space commercialization and more efficient space vehicles being developed, this cost is expected to drop dramatically. However, one shouldn't expect the cost to drop to much less than about $2,000 per kilogram ($2 million per metric ton). One of the main materials needed in space-based construction (such as for the International Space Station) will be Iron, in the form of Steel. On Earth, Iron sells for about $410 per metric ton. Carrying it into space will increase its cost to at least $2,000,410 per metric ton. That makes for one VERY expensive space station.
The cost of transporting material from one space-based location (asteroid mining/refining facility) to another (moon base, space station, etc. in geosynchronous Orbit) is only a tiny fraction of the cost of transporting it from Earth. An initial firing of engines for speed and direction, a few minor firings for navigational corrections, and another firing for orbiting, docking and/or landing is all that's required. And the size (weight) of the payload is of very little significance as well. In near-zero gravity everything weighs MUCH less (almost nothing). Once momentum is established, there is little gravity and friction to slow a craft down. It just keeps going.
Of course, the initial equipment needed to mine and refine asteroids will probably need to be brought from Earth. And this material WILL cost over $2,000,000 per metric ton. And other things such as food, clothing, water, oxygen, plastics, etc. will also need to be brought from Earth ... at least initially. Please see the PERMANENT website for information on how most of these things will eventually be produced in space or on the moon.
So, as you can see, despite the initial high cost of starting an asteroid mining operation, such a venture should easily become profitable in a very short period of time. As long as humans are committed to utilizing and exploring space there will be a market for asteroid products. And as long as the cost of these products are kept reasonable, a thriving and profitable market for refined elements and minerals, and products made from these materials, will exist.
A large strip-mining operation on Earth can extract and process as much as 80,000 metric tons of ore per day (based on 2 10-hour shifts). It is easily possible to more than double this output with an asteroid mining operation. Many factors contribute to the ease of asteroid mining and refining, including the near-zero gravity environment in space, the abundance of cheap (solar) power, the abundance of free metal within the ore, and the "crumbly" nature of a typical C-Type asteroid.
There are 22 metallic elements present in C-Type asteroids which exceed (sometimes to an astonishing degree) the percentages found in the Earth's crust. And nearly all of them are important and/or scarce on Earth. They range from Copper (about 1.5 X Earth Crust Abundance (ECA)), to Platinum (27 X ECA), to Tellurium (2100 X ECA). These metals are of vital interest, both on Earth and in space, for manufacturing and more. Of course, the other 56 elements in our asteroid are also important. In fact, one would be hard pressed to find a comparably rich ore on Earth; especially one with such uniformity of composition and ease of benefication.
Since a majority of an asteroid mining operation would be automated, such an operation could run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Even accounting for a 20% down time for maintenance, setup, etc., such an operation should be able to easily process 50 million M.T. of ore per year. If all ore was processed and reduced to element form, 50 million M.T. per year works out to over $40 billion per year in element value. For a breakdown of all element's values based on 50 million metric tons per year output, please check out our OTHER CHART.
Of course, many of the elements in our asteroid will probably not be fully processed. For example, it is highly unlikely that all of the Oxygen present on an asteroid would be reduced out of its parent minerals. Most of the Silica (SiO2), which is a major oxygen-bearing mineral in asteroids, will probably be used "as is" for things like cosmic ray shielding (slag), ceramics, glass, fiberglass, concrete, and more. Magnesium (about 36% of ore value) has some use as an alloy in Aluminum and Steel, but its compounds (especially MgO) will be much more commonly used (shielding, bricks, etc.), and are much cheaper. Also, Scandium (about 10% of ore value) has very few uses at this time, thus a very small market. Finally, for exported (to Earth) metals, the metals market is subject to significant price fluctuations, and a sudden influx of one or more metals would probably have a moderate to significant effect on market prices.
On the other hand, most of the elements extracted would be used almost exclusively for space-based projects, such as for building space stations and bases, life support, rocket fuel, ships, satellites, manufacturing, etc. Probably only the precious metals and rare-earths would be suitable for export to Earth. Any element valued at $500,000 per M.T. ($500 per kg. or about $227.50 per lb.) or more (22 elements) would be a likely candidate for export to Earth. These elements represent about $100. per metric ton of ore in value. Based on our 50 million metric tons per year, this would represent about $5 billion per year in exportable metals. However, perhaps half of this production will be needed for space-based manufacturing. If this is the case, about $2.5 billion in exportable metals per year would be a more accurate figure.
Income from the export of precious/rare-earth metals should easily pay for the purchase and transport of any materials needed from Earth. Income from space-based sales would pay for expansion of mining operations, pay salaries of employees, and should generate substantial profit for investors.
Yet another material which can account for 0.01% or more by weight of an asteroid's composition is Diamond. Most will be industrial grade (bort) microcrystals, well suited for drilling, polishing, etc. Even industrial grade diamond sells for several dollars per gram. If you could extract 0.01% diamond per metric ton of ore, each M.T. would yield 100 grams of diamonds. If you sold the ungraded diamonds at $2.00 per gram (40¢ per carat), each M.T. would yield $200 worth of diamond dust and crystals. At 50 million M.T./year production, that works out to $10 billion per year! This does not include the value of any gem-grade diamonds (probably about 0.5% of diamond production) recovered. With an average wholesale rough price of about $80 per carat ($400/gram), this would add significantly to the overall value of diamonds extracted. Gem yield of 0.5% of total diamond production works out to about 500 milligrams (2.5 carats) per M.T. of asteroid ore, valued at about $200. This would double the overall production value, yielding an annual production valued at $20 billion.
Of course, in space, with its cheap solar power, it should be relatively easy to convert native graphite (about 0.5% of ore) directly into diamond. And by this process, gem-grade diamonds of up to a carat or more can be produced. However, if they were exported to Earth, this would destroy the DeBeers Syndicate's near monopoly on the diamond industry and cause diamond prices to drop dramatically.
One other factor to consider regarding material values is supply and demand within the market that needs it. Spot metal prices on Earth need not be a consideration for pricing metals and other materials used in space. Anything needed in space manufacturing that costs less than $2,000 per kilogram (the projected minimum cost of bringing something from Earth), would be a marketable commodity. And if there's little or no competition, a supplier can pretty much name his price (under $2,000 per kg.). If a mining/refining operation wants to charge $5000 per metric ton for iron/steel (as opposed to $410/M.T. on Earth), and a hotel chain building a torus-type space hotel in geosynchronous orbit needs it to build the hotel, and there are no competing mining/refining operations in space, they will most likely be happy to pay it. After all, $5,000 per M.T. ($5./kg) is a WHOLE lot cheaper than $2,000 per kilogram. And if they needed, say 10 million M.T. of iron /steel for the hotel, they would be paying $50 billion for that iron/steel. And it would require less than 50 million M.T. of asteroid ore to produce the necessary iron (about a year's production of ore). Of course, they will also need magnesia/silica shielding (probably several million M.T.), as well as many other asteroid-derived materials for construction, solar power cells, electronics, lighting, breathable atmosphere components, water, soil, and much more. Ideally, materials costs would be negotiated on a per-project basis, based on a percentage of anticipated rate-of-return for the project (for commercial projects) or budget constraints (for government contracts).
A truly adventurous company could do far more than simply mine ore and refine it into elements and basic compounds. Mining and refining is just the first step in manufacturing useful products in space. The zero gravity vacuum of space allows for the production of some amazing things which are difficult, if not impossible, to produce on Earth. Extremely high-strength and exotic alloys and building materials, super-pure semiconductor materials, and completely finished products of exceptional quality can all be produced from asteroid material right in space. And many would be valuable enough and in great enough demand on Earth to warrant export and sale there.
The key to a successful venture is to start small and gradually expand operations utilizing materials processed on site. For example, one could begin ore extraction and processing with very rudimentary mining and processing equipment at a rate of 250 metric tons per day. As the ore is refined, much of the end-products can be used to build larger, more efficient mining and processing equipment and facilities. This, in turn, will increase production substantially until eventually (probably within 5 years) a sustained production capacity of 50 million metric tons/year or more is reached.
The next section deals with a hypothetical multi-use torus-type Space Station in geosynchronous Earth orbit, made almost entirely from asteroid materials and used, in part, as a manufacturing facility for producing goods made from asteroid materials. The entire station's shell is made from asteroid material. It would be 3 meters (9 ft.) thick and consist of an outer and inner skin of nickel-carbide steel alloy 1/2 meter thick each, with a 2 meter core of silica-magnesia-calcia "astrocrete." The floors, walls, plumbing, wiring, and just about every other component of the station would also be composed of asteroid material. The station could easily support a population of 1,000 or more people, and would be almost entirely self-sufficient.
One of the best website around for information about asteroid, moon and planet mining is the PERMANENT website (www.permanent.com). This site is published and maintained by a former NASA project planner. It is a clearinghouse of information on the subject, and their sources are mostly top notch. It could, however, use a bit of filling out in some areas. The site also contains links to additional relevant and related sites.
*Source: Web Elements Periodic Table.
**Source: United States Geological Survey
